Oscars Predictions: Supporting Actress – Will Angela Bassett Become the First MCU Acting Nom and Oldest Black Woman Winner in History?

Other contenders include Hong Chau, Kerry Condon, Jamie Lee Curtis, Stephanie Hsu and Carey Mulligan

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Jan. 12, 2023

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, from left: Tallie Medel, Stephanie Hsu, 2022. ph: Allyson Riggs /© A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: An Oscar-size crater was created in the category when Michelle Williams’ camp announced her lead actress campaign for her role in “The Fabelmans.” Add in the vote-splitting of the actors from “Women Talking,” which has benefited “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” star Angela Bassett, proven by her Golden Globe win.

Not only will Bassett be the first Marvel Cinematic Universe actor ever nominated at the Oscars, but at 64 years old (STUNNING!) she would be the eighth oldest winner in the category’s history, surpassing Judi Dench in “Shakespeare in Love” (1998). In addition, she would be the oldest Black woman ever to win.

As the industry pundits noticed, Michelle Williams missed out on a SAG nomination for “The Fabelmans” in the lead actress category. The SAG Nominating Committee honors the submission of a performer but based on conversations with voters, I have a theory that the four-time nominated star could be a contender to pop up in supporting actress, rather than lead where she decided to campaign. With a movie about Sammy Fabelman, played by Gabriel LaBelle, some see her as a supporting player. It’ll be interesting to see if this theory becomes a reality if this makes this race even more competitive with Angela Bassett winning the Golden Globe for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.”

And then there’s the dilemma (?) regarding SAG nominees Hong Chau (“The Whale”) and Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”). Do either of them make the lineup, as they are also riding the coattails of their films that are contending in other acting categories and best picture.

AMPAS nomination voting is open and closes on Tuesday, Jan. 17 at 5 p.m. PT.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

THE WHALE, Hong Chau, 2022. © A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection Courtesy Everett Collection

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankNameFilmDistributor
1Angela Bassett“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa.
2Kerry Condon“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
3Jamie Lee Curtis“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
4Hong Chau“The Whale”A24
A reclusive English teacher suffering from severe obesity attempts to reconnect with his estranged teenage daughter for one last chance at redemption.
5Michelle Williams*“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
Next in Line
6Stephanie Hsu“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
7Dolly De Leon“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
8Carey Mulligan“She Said”Universal Pictures
New York Times reporters Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor break one of the most important stories in a generation – a story that helped ignite a movement and shattered decades of silence around the subject of sexual assault in Hollywood.
9Jessie Buckley“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
10Nina Hoss“Tár”Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11Claire Foy“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
12Janelle Monáe“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
13Keke Palmer“Nope”Universal Pictures
14Gabrielle Union“The Inspection”A24
15Lashana Lynch“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
16Laura Dern“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
17Judith Ivey“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
18Kate Hudson“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story”Netflix
19Jean Smart“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
20Aimee Lou Wood“Living”Sony Pictures Classics
Also In Contention
21Thuso Mbedu“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
22Olivia DeJonge“Elvis”Warner Bros.
23Mariana Treviño“A Man Called Otto”Sony Pictures
24Sadie Sink“The Whale”A24
25Charmaine Bingwa“Emancipation”Apple Original Films
26Jennifer Ehle“She Said”Universal Pictures
27Jennifer Connelly“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
28Anne Hathaway“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
29Vanessa Kirby“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
30Emma Corrin“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
Ahna O’Reilly“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Aimee Lou Wood“Living”Sony Pictures Classics
Aisling Franciosi“God’s Creatures”A24
Alba Baptista“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Alejandra Flechner“Argentina, 1985”Amazon Studios
Alice Englert“You Won’t Be Alone”Focus Features
Alix West Leller“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Amanda Bearse“Bros”Universal Pictures
Amber Grey“Master”Amazon Studios
Anamaria Marinca“You Won’t Be Alone”Focus Features
Andrea Riseborough“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Andrea Riseborough“Matilda”Netflix
Angela Bassett“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Anne Hathaway“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
Anya Taylor-Joy“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Anya Taylor-Joy“The Northman”Focus Features
Ashely Park“Mr. Malcolm’s List”Bleecker Street
Avis Marie Barnes“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”Focus Features
Benja K. Thomas“A Love Song”Bleecker Street
Billie Piper“Catherine Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
BJÖRK
“The Northman”Focus Features
Bria Danielle Singleton“Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody”Sony Pictures
Carey Mulligan“She Said”Universal Pictures
CCH Pounder“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Charlotte Gainsbourg“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
Charmaine Bingwa“Emancipation”Apple Original Films
Chloë Sevigny“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Christina Jackson“Devotion”Sony Pictures
Claire Foy“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Connie Britton“Breaking”Bleecker Street
Crystal Clarke“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Dakota Johnson“Cha Cha Real Smooth”Apple Original Films
Danai Gurira“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Dolly De Leon“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
Dominique Thorne“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Doona Bae“Broker”Neon
Dot-Marie Jones“Bros”Universal Pictures
Edie Falco“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Ego Nwodim“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”Sony Pictures
Elaine Cassidy“The Wonder”Netflix
Elizabeth McGovern“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Elizabeth Olsen“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”Marvel Studios
Ellen Thomas“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Émilie Dequenne“Close”A24
Émilie Dequenne“Close”A24
Emily Mitchell“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Emma Corrin“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
Emma Thompson“Matilda”Netflix
Emma Thompson“What’s Love Got to Do With It?”No U.S. Distribution
Emmy Raver-Lampman“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Eve Lindley“Bros”Universal Pictures
Florence Kasumba“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Frances McDormand“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Gabrielle Union“Strange World”Walt Disney Pictures
Gabrielle Union“The Inspection”A24
Gemma Chan“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Gillian Anderson“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
Greta Gerwig“White Noise”Netflix
Griselda Sicillani“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”Netflix
Haley Bennett“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
Haley Lu Richardson“After Yang”A24
Hong Chau“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Hong Chau“The Whale”A24
Imelda Staunton“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Iris Berben“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
Isabella Rossellini“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”A24
Isabelle Huppert“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Jaimie Alexander“Thor: Love and Thunder”Marvel Studios
Jamie Lee Curtis“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
Jane Adams“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Janelle Monáe
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Janet McTeer“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Janet McTeer“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Jayme Lawson“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
Jayme Lawson“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
Jean Smart“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Jeannie Berlin“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Jennifer Connelly“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
Jennifer Ehle“She Said”Universal Pictures
Jessica Chastain“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
Jessica Hardwick“The Lost King”Warner Bros.
Jessica Harper“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Jessica Henwick“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Jessie Buckley“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Joanne Froggatt“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Jodhi May“The Silent Twins”Focus Features
Jodie Turner-Smith“After Yang”A24
Joely Richardson“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”Netflix
Jojo Regina“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Judi Dench“Allelujah”No U.S. Distribution
Judith Ivey“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Judith Ivey“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Judith Light“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Julia Butters“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Julianne Nicholson“Blonde”Netflix
Kaitlyn Dever“Ticket to Paradise”Netflix
Kate Berlant“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Kate Hallett“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Kate Hudson“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Kate Winslet“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Kathryn Hahn“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Keke Palmer*“Nope”Universal Pictures
Kerry Condon“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Kiki Layne“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Kila Lord Cassidy“The Wonder”Netflix
Kim Dickens“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Kim Dickens“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Kimberly Guerrero“Montana Story”Bleecker Street
Kristen Stewart“Crimes of the Future”Neon
Lashana Lynch“Matilda”Netflix
Lashana Lynch“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
Laura Carmichael“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Laura Dern“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
Laura Haddock“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Léa Drucker“Close”A24
Léa Drucker“Close”A24
Léa Seydoux“Crimes of the Future”Neon
Lesley Nicol“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Lesley Sharp“Catherine Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
Leslie Uggams“Nanny”Amazon Studios
Li Jun Li“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Lily Fisher“Blonde”Netflix
Lucy Boynton“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
Lupita Nyong’o“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Lyric Hurd“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”Sony Pictures
Mabel Cadena“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Madelyn Cline“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Maggie Smith“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Malea Emma Tjandrawidjaja“After Yang”A24
Mar Carrera“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”Netflix
Margot Robbie“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Maria Bakalova“Bodies Bodies Bodies”A24
Mariana Treviño“A Man Called Otto”Sony Pictures
Marianne Jean-Baptiste“The Sea Beast”Netflix
Marsha Stephanie Blake“Brother”No U.S. Distribution
May Nivola“White Noise”Netflix
Meteora Fontana“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”Netflix
Michael Hyatt“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Michaela Coel“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Michelle McLeod“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Michelle Monaghan“Nanny”Amazon Studios
Michelle Williams*“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Michelle Wilson“A Love Song”Bleecker Street
Michelle Yeoh“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Nadine Marshall“The Silent Twins”Focus Features
Nathalie Baye“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Niamh Algar“The Wonder”Netflix
Nicole Beharie“Breaking”Bleecker Street
Nicole Beharie“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”Focus Features
Nicole Kidman“The Northman”Focus Features
Nicole LaLiberté“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Nikki Amuka-Bird“The Outfit”Focus Features
Nina Hoss“Tár”Focus Features
Noémie Merlant“Tár”Focus Features
Noomi Rapace“You Won’t Be Alone”Focus Features
Octavia Spencer“Spirited”Apple Original Films
Olivia DeJonge“Elvis”Warner Bros.
Olivia Wilde“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Olivia Wilde“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Oona Chaplin“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Patricia Clarkson“Monica”No U.S. Distribution
Patricia Clarkson“She Said”Universal Pictures
Pattrakorn Tungsupakul“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Penelope Wilton“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Phyllis Logan“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Q’Orianka Kilcher“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Queen Latifah“Hustle”Netflix
Quintessa Swindell“Black Adam”Warner Bros
Rachel Keller“A Man Called Otto”Sony Pictures
Rachel Keller“Butcher’s Crossing”Saban Films
Raffey Cassidy“White Noise”Netflix
Raquel Cassidy“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Rose Decker“Nanny”Amazon Studios
Rose Williams“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Ruth Wilson“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
Sabrina Carpenter“Emergency”Amazon Studios
Sadie Sink“The Whale”A24
Sally Field“Spoiler Alert”Focus Features
Samantha Morton“She Said”Universal Pictures
Samantha Morton“The Whale”A24
Selenis Leyva“Breaking”Bleecker Street
Shayla Brown“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Sheila Atim“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
Sheila McCarthy“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Sigourney Weaver“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Sigourney Weaver“Call Jane”Roadside Attractions
Sophie Kauer“Tár”Focus Features
Sophie McShera“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Sophie Okonedo“Raymond & Ray”Apple Original Films
Stephanie Hsu“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
Sydney Chandler“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Tamara Tunie“Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody”Sony Pictures
Tanya Moodie“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Taylor Swift“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Tessa Thompson“Thor: Love and Thunder”Marvel Studios
Thuso Mbedu“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
Ts Madison“Bros”Universal Pictures
Tuppence Middleton“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Vanessa Kirby“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
Vicki Berlin“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
Whoopi Goldberg“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
Wunmi Mosaku“Alice, Darling”Lionsgate
Ximena Lamadrid“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”Netflix
Zawe Ashton“Mr. Malcolm’s List”Bleecker Street
Zoë Kravitz“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Zoe Renee“Master”Amazon Studios
Zoe Saldaña
“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Zoey Deutch“The Outfit”Focus Features
Zooey Deschanel“Dreamin’ Wild”No U.S. Distribution

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

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The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: Ariana DeBose, "West Side Story" (20th Century Studios)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.